09 октября 2019

Prospects for the using of machine learning methods for predicting cardiovascular disease

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The article "Prospects for the using of machine learning methods for predicting cardiovascular disease" by authors Gusev A. V., Gavrilov D. V., Korsakov I. N., Serova L. M., Novitsky R. E., Kuznetsova T. Yu. was published in the 3rd issue of the magazine" Information technologies for the Physician 2019".

Morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has remained the leading rate in recent decades worldwide. Primary prevention methods based on the management of cardiovascular risk factors are most effective in reducing the burden of CVD. In preventive medicine for risk management of CVD use the riskometers – scales that was obtained as a result of long prospective studies. But the practical application of the developing scales has showed the limitations in the forecast accuracy. 

Machine learning makes it possible to improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction due to nonlinear relationships of their deeper adjustment between risk factors and disease outcomes. 

2236 patients’ data were used. We trained the model on the features used in the Framingham scale construction. We compared the resulting model and the Framingham scale for the accuracy of the cardiovascular event prediction. Thus, according to the ROC analysis for the Framingham scale, the indicators are as follows: precision Accuracy: 70,0%, the AUC: 0.59. At the same time for the model obtained using machine learning, similar indicators were: Accuracy: 78,8%, AUC: 0.84.

Thus, the use of machine learning algorithms, including deep learning algorithms, can significantly improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction of trained models.

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